Political Predictions

Every once in a while I offer on this blog a few political predictions. For what it’s worth (hint: not much) here are my best guesses:

• Contrary to what many think, Rick Warren will ask Obama and McCain about abortion tonight (probably in the form of what they will do to prevent/reduce abortions—not about the status of the unborn child or the morality of ending its life). Obama’s answer will sound very good and will be widely praised.
  
• John McCain will pick a strongly pro-life running mate (though it won’t be Huckabee). Perhaps the current ruminations about him picking a pro-choice running mate—which I think would surely ensure his defeat—are setting the expectations low so that social conservatives are thrilled when the real deal is announced.
  
• If Obama picks John Kerry as his running mate (please!), practice saying “President McCain.” The conservative base would be delighted!
  
• McCain will do better than expected in the debates, partially because the expectations for Obama will be very high (when in reality, he frequently stumbles apart from a teleprompter).
  
• Obama will get a huge bounce after the convention, McCain will slowly close the gap, and the race will be neck-and-neck to the finish line—but McCain will (barely) prevail.