I do think if this had been the first debate, Bush would be close to coasting into reelection. But one thing I am fairly certain of is that these polls showing that Kerry won the debate miss the bigger picture. I think lots of people look at Kerry and Bush and say, in effect, "Sure, Kerry won the debate, but I liked Bush more." Kerry talks, walks, and breathes like a debater. If you said, "Please pass the salt" to him, he'd probably respond, "First, let me say this about that...." For example, if William F. Buckley were to debate John Kerry, I'd bet that most liberals would agree afterward that Buckley had won the debate. That doesn't mean that most liberals would suddenly agree with Buckley on abortion or anything else.
Here's my meager prediction: The polls will show Bush "lost" the debate, but the polls will also show Bush gained ground because of it.
