The states that went for George W. Bush four years ago are listed in red. Those that went for Al Gore are listed in blue--followed by the state's electoral vote count. I've edited it down to the bare essentials. (Fund also lists codes and analysis on all the other races going on, too--but I'm just focusing in this post on the presidential race. If you're interested, go read and bookmark the article.) I'm assuming, by the way, that all of these times are EASTERN standard time.
Here we go:
6 p.m.
- Indiana 11
- Kentucky 8
7 p.m.
- Georgia 15
- New Hampshire 4
- South Carolina 8
- Vermont 3
- Virginia 13
7:30 p.m.
- North Carolina 15
- Ohio 20
- West Virginia 5
Expect a long. bloody night in Ohio, where dueling teams of Democratic and Republican lawyers have spent the past several weeks in court trying to squeeze some advantage out of the state's election rules. We may see lawsuits over polling hours, provisional ballots and challengers to voters--and that's if the state isn't that close.
8 p.m.
- Alabama 9
- Connecticut 7
- Delaware 3
- District of Columbia 3
- Florida 27
- Illinois 21
- Kansas 6
- Maine 4
- Maryland 10
- Massachusetts 12
- Michigan 17
- Mississippi 6
- Missouri 11
- New Jersey 15
- North Dakota 3
- Oklahoma 8
- Pennsylvania 21
- Tennessee 11
- Texas 34
By now, some clear trends on which party is winning should be emerging.
Florida, which went through such national embarrassment in 2000 during its 36-day recount, has decided to play it safe this year. Its officials will not release any vote totals until the entire state (including the Panhandle counties that close at 8 p.m. Eastern) has voted. In the end, color Florida red for President Bush again, and this time by a significantly larger margin than the 537-vote spread of 2000. . . .
Florida, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, is one of the three essential electoral prizes in the race for president. If Mr. Kerry wins any two of those three, he will be in a strong position to defeat President Bush (though Mr. Bush could still prevail depending on how the Upper Midwest states, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, come in).
Missouri is a must-win state for the Republicans for president. If the race is close, look for Republicans to revive allegations of voter fraud and irregularities that got some ink in 2000.. . .
The other big presidential prize in this cohort of states is Pennsylvania. The Bush campaign is bullish; columnist Robert Novak reports that it dropped one million pieces of pro-life literature on Sunday in churches in this culturally conservative state. Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling even hobbled out on stage in a Pittsburgh rally yesterday to declare his support for President Bush. If Bush does win here, he will be a prohibitive favorite to win a second term. But the massive ground game run by Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is likely to produce an unprecedented 400,000-vote margin for Mr. Kerry in Philadelphia, a city that has as many registered voters as it has adults over the age of 18. Despite charges of voter fraud, the final victor in the Keystone State is likely to be Mr. Kerry. . .
Michigan is likely to be another heartbreaker for President Bush.
8:30 p.m.
- Arkansas 6
9 p.m.
- Arizona 10
- Colorado 9
- Louisiana 9
- Minnesota 10
- Nebraska 5
- New Mexico 5
- New York 31
- Rhode Island 4
- South Dakota 3
- Wisconsin 10
- Wyoming 3
Colorado . . . a state that now looks as if President Bush will win it without breaking too much of a sweat.
In the presidential race, New Mexico, Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Minnesota are Gore states that are within reach for President Bush. If he loses Ohio, he'll need Wisconsin and one other Upper Midwest state to win re-election.
10 p.m.
- Idaho 4
- Iowa 7
- Montana 3
- Nevada 5
- Utah 5
11 p.m.
- California 55
- Hawaii 4
- Oregon 7
- Washington 11
Midnight
- Alaska 3
