6 P.M. EST
At 6 P.M., polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. The evening gets off to a slow, comfortable beginning, as Indiana and Kentucky are both Bush states, and solidly so.
7 P.M. EST
At 7 P.M., polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and the east side of Florida and New Hampshire, sort of.
In New Hampshire, state law permits its 13 cities to keep their polls open until 8 P.M.
Because the majority of the state's polls have closed by 7 P.M., the networks have no problem considering this hour as the earliest hour of potential projection. However, with New Hampshire being a key swing state, a wise network would hold off a bit if the exit poll does not show an overwhelming winner.
In light of that, expect CBS (and perhaps some other foolish networks) to declare both Florida and New Hampshire for Kerry at this hour, even though the polls are still open.
Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia should all be safe Bush states, and Vermont should be safe Kerry.
7:30 P.M. EST
At 7:30 P.M., polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and most of North Carolina.
Like New Hampshire, the Tarheel State allows its County Boards of Elections to decide whether to keep polls open until 8:30 P.M. EST. Outside of metropolitan areas, this local option is not often utilized and so the networks usually call the state around 7:30 P.M., even though the polls are still open.
Expect CBS to call North Carolina for John Edwards, and then adjust their projection several hours later.
Ohio will be key, but if it is as close as everyone is predicting, the final count shouldn't be in until much later in the evening — perhaps midnight. Be wary of early calls on this state.
If Kerry were to somehow win West Virginia, it would be a sign of an early night and a big Kerry win.
8 P.M. EST
At 8 P.M., polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, the rest of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and the west side of Florida.
By this hour, we may have our best sense of how the night is going — depending on whether the exit-polling data is showing a clear winner in Florida, Michigan. and Pennsylvania. MI and PA should both be close, and thus the projection of a final winner in these key states could and should take a while. If either one looks like it is tipping for Bush, then it will be an early night, as it will be nearly-impossible for Kerry to make up losing those 20-plus electoral votes in each.
You already know about Florida — this may be the most key indicator of the night. If Florida looks like a Bush win fairly early, then the GOP turnout effort will likely have worked and it will be a good sign for all the other swing states. If Kerry is leading, then it will be a sign that Democrats have held their traditional advantage in getting their base voters to the polls.
It will be interesting if the networks are keeping track of separate exit-polling data for Maine's Second Congressional District. If Bush wins that electoral vote, it would be a key indication that he's running ahead of where he was in 2000, and could be in for a big night.
Kerry's share of the vote in Massachusetts should be interesting, although there is no doubt he will win.
Democrats had once hoped to win Missouri — Bush's margin here could be an interesting indicator. If it's close, he might be in trouble, and Kerry might regret conceding this state so early.
By this hour, there should be a clearer picture about New Hampshire.
8:30 P.M. EST
At 8:30 P.M., polls close in Arkansas and the rest of North Carolina.
The most optimistic Democrats were hoping Clinton magic would give Kerry a win in Arkansas, and that Edwards was going to help win North Carolina. Few polls have shown either state all that close, and I expect their results to get only a casual glance as the discussion of the 8 P.M. finishers continues.
9 P.M. EST
At 9 P.M., polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
More and more, New Mexico is striking me as a key, key state. It only has five electoral votes, but if this blue state turns red, it creates many headaches for Kerry. A Bush win here offsets any bad news from New Hampshire.
As for Wisconsin and Minnesota, each one is turning into a junior version of Pennsylvania or Michigan. If Kerry sweeps these two, he's in good shape. If he drops one, he could still win, but will be lucky to break 280. If he drops both, it's just about over.
There are few people who still think Kerry could win Colorado, but if he pulled off an upset there, it would be huge. The proportional-electoral-vote ballot initiative is likely to go down, but that's another factor worth keeping an eye on.
10 P.M. EST
At 10 P.M., polls close in North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Iowa.
By now, we should have some answers about the close races from earlier in the evening, and perhaps the first official post-election lawsuits will be filed. Democratic lawyers will begin boarding their chartered jets, reacting to any state that Bush won that Team Kerry felt they should have won. Iowa will be an interesting test — if Bush picks it up, it may be one of the last indicators of the evening.
11 P.M. EST
At 11 P.M., polls close in California, Washington, Hawaii, and Oregon.
The big three should be Kerry — but Hawaii will be fun to watch. The Bush team seems ebullient about its chances here, and boy, wouldn't reporters love to do some on-the-spot reporting about this state's results after the election? "Boss, Hawaii's going for Bush is the big story of this election. I need to spend at least a week researching this."
Midnight EST
At midnight., polls close in Alaska.
