According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Election Projection--definitely a "bookmarkable" site--has the current projection of electoral votes at Bush 288, to Kerry 250, and the popular vote at Bush 50.9% to Kerry 47.3%.
And Brendan Miniter of the Wall Street Journal predicts in Tuesday's issue that "Mr. Kerry will be lucky to top the 45.7% of the popular vote Michael Dukakis got in 1988."